LA Center for Nursing unveils new workforce forecasting tool


Louisiana Center for Nursing (LCN), a division of the Louisiana State Board of Nursing (LSBN), recently announced it has developed a multi-regional, statewide nursing workforce forecasting model. Working with the consultants that developed the Northeast Ohio Nursing Initiative (NEONI) Forecasting Model, which was used as a template for Louisiana’s Model, LCN was able to develop one of the country’s most comprehensive tools for forecasting supply and demand within the nursing workforce.

Twenty-seven separate models, which include eight regional models and a statewide model for each level of nursing, were built for the state of Louisiana which can be used to forecast the supply and demand for registered nurses (RNs), advanced practice registered nurses (APRNs), and licensed practical nurses (LPNs). The model recognizes that population, technological advances in healthcare, regulatory changes which impact healthcare and other market forces will vary unpredictably in the next seven years. The model is dynamic, and allows for a number of key assumptions regarding the future of healthcare and changes in the nursing workforce to be easily changed to provide a range of future forecasts. As the model can be adjusted to address any of these changes, it can be used as a policy tool that can help identify the most effective way to manage any anticipated shortages in the availability of nurses. The analysis the model provides can be a powerful policy tool when discussing different approaches to meeting the nursing needs of each region and for the state as a whole.

“We are excited to now have a tool that can assist LCN with achieving its mission, which is to ensure that there is an adequate workforce to meet the current and future healthcare needs of the citizens of Louisiana,” Dr. Cynthia Bienemy, director of the Louisiana Center for Nursing, said. “By being able to forecast the supply and demand for RNs, APRNs, and LPNs for specific settings such as hospital inpatient care, emergency department, ambulatory care, home health, and long-term care, we can more accurately propose recommendations, education initiatives, and develop policies that can help fill that need.”

LCN received funding from the Louisiana Health Works Commission (LHWC) and LSBN to develop this unique model. Nursing workforce shortages and surpluses tend to be specific to particular localities, and national data, even when used at the state level, may not be adequate to document the supply and demand for nurses at the regional or county level.

“As far as we know, Louisiana is the only state in the country with this level of sophistication to encompass both state and regional data,” Lisa Anderson, Vice President, Center for Health Affairs/NEONI, said.

The tool is functional through 2020 and can be updated annually with new licensure data and other relevant data as needed. LCN worked closely with Barbara Morvant, Executive Director of LSBN, and Lynn Ansardi, Executive Director of the Louisiana State Board of Practical Nurse Examiners (LSBPNE), to provide data needed for the forecasting model on RNs, APRNs, and LPNs licensed in Louisiana. The forecasting model was developed over eight months, beginning in November 2012. The technical report and summary report can be found at the following link.

“LCN would like to thank the many stakeholders that contributed to the development of the forecasting model,” Bienemy said. “The stakeholder groups were instrumental in providing Louisiana specific-data related to the nursing workforce, patient utilization, and nurse staff ratios in various healthcare settings.”

For more information on the Louisiana Multi-Regional Statewide Nursing Workforce Forecasting Model, please contact Dr. Cynthia Bienemy at the Louisiana Center for Nursing, lcn@lsbn.state.la.us.

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